Change happens slower than I might think. Even at 50% of new sales in a year, this means that probably just 30% of cards will be electric by the time I am retired in 20 years.
Sadness.
Electric vehicles take majority share of new car sales
We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040, not 35% as previously forecast.
Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017 | Bloomberg New Energy Finance | Bloomberg Finance LP : https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/?src=social
Jon
I believe this may be modified by other factors. Two come to mind.
1.) As fewer people buy gasoline we may reach a flip point where prices begin to rise to compensate for a lack of volume. This may increase adoption then of electric vehicles as fuel becomes even less desirable.
2.) If electric vehicles become frequently coupled with autonomous driving, and actuaries begin to factor in significantly fewer traffic incidents, we may see the cost of insurring human driven vehicles skyrocket. This could then become an accelerating influence on adoption of electric vehicles.
Secondary & Tertiary factors when dealing with such a complicated subject as auto acquisition are hard to predict and of course could also have the opposite impact to what I suggest.